The next Bull Market will start when everyone has given up on the stock market as the means to “get rich quick” or even “get rich slowly.”
Here’s the chart of the month: a weekly chart of the S&P 500 (SPX) showing the giant wedge going back to January 2022 has broken decisively down.
Any questions? Wow, so many have raised their hands, we’ll try to answer as many as we can in our allotted time.
Isn’t there a “bull flag,” i.e. a technical pattern that projects a continuation of the Bull move higher?
No.
Isn’t there a “Bullish breakout” that projects a continuation of the Bull move higher?
No.
Isn’t the economy going to avoid a recession due to a strong job market, i.e. “no landing”?
No.
Isn’t the economy going to have a “soft landing” due to the strong job market?
Maybe “soft” for some but “hard” for others. “Recession” is somebody else losing their job and/or losing their shirt in the stock market / bank failure / crypto meltdown, etc., a “depression” is losing your job and/or losing your shirt in the market / bank failure, etc.
Won’t the Federal Reserve “pivot” to lowering interest rates and restarting stimulus (QE) because Silicon Valley Bank failed?
No.
Won’t the Fed “pivot” once a recession becomes undeniable?
No.
Won’t the strong job market inoculate the economy and market from bad things?
No. Neither full employment nor high unemployment can unwind 23 years of financial distortion, corruption and moral hazard.
What’s the new hot sector that will power the next speculative frenzy that will push the market to breathtaking new highs?
Digital currencies backed by bat guano or quatloos issued by the Central Bank of Mars.
When will the next Bull Market start?
Overlay the past 40 years of the stock market’s rise to dominance on this chart of the 1950s to the 1980s. We are at the point equivalent to Q4 1972. The next Bull Market will start when everyone has given up on the stock market as the means to “get rich quick” or even “get rich slowly.”
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