Of Two Minds

What is “money”? “Money” is a claim on the essentials of life. Ration cards are claims on essentials. Many people expect “money” will soon be tied to commodities. Agreed. It’s called a ration card that grants the holder the right to buy a specific quantity of essential goods at a specified price.

Putting this all together, it’s clear that the source of the current housing bubble is the explosion of financial speculation fueled by central bank policies. Those benefiting from speculative bubbles have powerful incentives to deny the bubble can bust.

It’s very difficult to find common ground that supports cooperation in the disintegrative stage of scarcities, rising prices, catastrophically centralized power and social discord.

The mercantilist dependence on exports for growth, a winner for the past 70 years, has reached diminishing returns. Rather than be a source of growth, it’s a source of stagnation. Conventional wisdom holds that geopolitical power is inevitably shifting from West to East. It isn’t quite this simple.

It’s time to reprogram the conditions of the economy to serve the many rather than the few. Star Trek’s Kobayashi Maru training exercise tests officer candidates’ response to a no-win scenario: any attempt to rescue the crippled ship’s crew results in the destruction of the candidate’s ship, while standing by and taking no action results in the loss of the Kobayashi Maru’s crew.

Every forecast or guess has one refreshing quality: one will be right and the rest will be wrong. What’s the difference between a forecast< and a guess? On one level, the answer is "none": the future is unknown and even the most informed forecast is still a guess.