If the consensus of experts misunderstand money, credit and prosperity, how are we going to advance? Describing all the ways experts got it wrong is a thriving cottage industry.

This dynamic–making problems much worse by forcing more of whatever worked in the previous era into a saturated, increasing unstable new era–receives little attention or understanding.

The question that should be on our minds is: how are my household’s buffers holding up? Lists of predictions for the new year are reliably popular.

It’s inconvenient when those whose sacrifices are essential to the system get fed up and find some other way to live. Convenience isn’t just about small appliances. It’s also about ruling nations. Let’s start with the semantics of ruling nations.

It shouldn’t surprise us if 2023 turns out to be atypical and disruptively transformational in ways few believe possible. It seems expectations about 2023 cleave neatly into two camps:

The mainstream assumption is the status quo will continue on much as before. This isn’t just unlikely, it’s impossible if total energy produced and consumed declines.