Of Two Minds

I’m simply pointing out “money” isn’t simple, and “backing money with X” leads to questions about the nature of “money,” collateral and the fluidity and complexity of the social construct we call “money.” The problem with money is it isn’t just one thing. We think it’s one thing because we use it to buy things, but it’s actually a bunch of different things. This is why I often refer to it as “money:”

Those glancing at the appearances will be assured all is well and it will all sort itself out. Those who look behind the screen will move away as fast as they can. When finances tighten, there are two choices: cut expenses or increase revenues.

What if all the new consensus memes are as wrong as the ones they replaced? I have the Contrarian Curse, and I have it bad. The Contrarian Curse is: as soon as the herd adopts your previously contrarian view, you start questioning the new consensus, just as you questioned the previous consensus.

We are all prone to believing the recent past is a reliable guide to the future. But in times of dynamic reversals, the past is an anchor thwarting our progress, not a forecast. Are we heading into another real estate bubble / crash? Those who say “no” see the housing shortage as real, while those who say “yes” see the demand as a reflection of the Federal Reserve’s artificial goosing of the housing market via its unprecedented purchases of mortgage-backed securities and “easy money” financial conditions.

All of these similarities and differences are setting up a sea-change revaluation of capital, resources and labor that will be on the same scale as the extraordinary transitions of the 1920s and 1970s. The awakening of inflation after decades of slumber has triggered a flurry of comparisons to the 1970s accompanied by a chorus of projections for 1970s-type stagflation, defined as inflation plus economic stagnation– limited or negative growth and high unemployment.

If we can’t discern the difference between doom-porn and investing in self-reliance, then solutions will continue to be out of reach. I’m often accused of calling 783 of the last two bubble pops (or was it 789? Forgive the imprecision).