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Initial victories do not guarantee the war will be won. Rather, they arouse the most dangerous enemy: the fatal hubris of over-confidence. War tops the long list of human folly for a basic reason: it rarely achieves the initial goals of launching the war.

When the crash can no longer be denied, the drop is widely recognized as having been obvious and inevitable…The last chance to exit is well-known in stock trading circles, but the concept can be applied much more broadly. The basic dynamic at work is a mismatch between the fundamentals (i.e. the real world) which are deteriorating due to structural changes and the psychology of participants which continues to be confident and upbeat.

The Geopolitics of Degrowth holds that real power flows not from waste, centralization and coercion but from decentralization, relocalization and the free flow of value. Conventional geopolitics is all about: more military power, more sanctions, more coercion, more influence.

Let’s call this financial system what it really is: the MetaPerverse, a conjured world of self-serving cons. We live in a peculiar juncture of history in which truth has been banished as a threat to the maximization of private gain, i.e. the hyper-pursuit of self-interest. Evidence that supports a causal chain has been replaced by cherry-picked data that supports a self-serving narrative: both the evidence and narrative are manufactured to serve the interests of the few at the expense of the many.

The unprecedented credit-fueled bubbles in stocks, bonds and real estate are popping, and America’s corrupt leaders can only stammer and spew excuses and empty promises. Unbeknownst to most people, America’s leadership made a pact with the Devil: rather than face the constraints and injustices of our economic-financial system directly, a reckoning that would require difficult choices and some sacrifice by the ruling financial-political elites, our leaders chose the Devil’s Pact: substitute the creation of asset-bubble “wealth” in the hands of the few for widespread prosperity.

Meanwhile, back in the wintry real world, everyone facing a dime in higher costs is jacking up their price by a dollar. We’re constantly assured everything’s on the mend but this trying-too-hard marketing has the opposite effect: it confirms everything’s unraveling.

So when the gambler ends up juggling lit sticks of dynamite, he’s confident nothing bad can happen because nothing bad has ever happened, no matter how much risk he takes on. The problem with constantly being saved from the consequences of our actions is this fatally distorts our sense of risk.

Addiction is deadly, and no amount of artifice can obscure that this monetary addiction and collapse is the result of one Pusher: the Federal Reserve. To talk about the Federal Reserve raising rates and reducing “easing” as a policy error is like saying the fentanyl addict who reduces his daily dose is making a policy error.

Ponder what a clawback of the $50 trillion might entail, and the immense benefits of returning to producing quality goods and services by completely unwinding financialization and globalization. The happy story that’s been ceaselessly promoted for 45 years is that financialization and globalization have been wunnerful for all of us, boosting wealth and saving a small fortune as the cost of products fell.

The crapification of the U.S. economy is now complete. The only thing left is the tiresome waiting for the implosion of the entire travesty of a mockery of a sham. The U.S. economy has fundamentally changed, and not for the better. There are numerous dynamics behind this decay, and I’ll discuss a few of the more consequential ones this month.

When the state / empire loses the ability to recognize and solve core problems of security and fairness, it will be replaced by another arrangement that is more adaptable and adept at solving problems. From a systems perspective, nation-states and empires arise when they are superior solutions to security compared to whatever arrangement they replace: feudalism, warlords, tribal confederations, etc.

The bear has awakened, and it will not be limited to the stock market. The bear awakens from a long, uneasy slumber and the everything bubble is in trouble. I’m not going to make the bear case with charts or price-earnings ratios or sentiment readings or anything remotely financial.

We are in effect so busy arranging the beach umbrellas per our instructions that we don’t notice the approaching tsunami. Economists focus on what can be easily measured: sales, profits, prices, tax revenues, etc. Since the decay and failure of institutions isn’t easily quantified, this decay doesn’t register in the realm of economics.

The equity, real estate and bond markets all rode the coattails of the Fed’s ZIRP and easy-money liquidity tsunami for the past 13 years. As those subside, what’s left to drive assets higher?

The clear winners in inflation are those who require little from global supply chains, the frugal, and those who own their own labor, skills and enterprises. As the case for systemic inflation builds, the question arises: who wins and who loses in an up-cycle of inflation?

The number of traders who beat the indices soundly over both Bull and Bear markets are very few in number. The Bear’s broken clock is finally right. Those clock hands stuck at midnight–well, it’s finally midnight.

Surely the Fed gods will affirm the cult’s most revered articles of faith. But false gods eventually fail, even the Fed. Every once in awhile the zeitgeist sets up an either / or: either the zeitgeist is crazy or I’m crazy. (OK, let’s agree I’m crazy; see, it’s not that hard to find something to agree on, is it?)

The Empire is striking back, protecting what really counts, and the Billionaire Bubble sideshow is folding its tents. One of the most enduring conceits of the modern era is that the Federal Reserve acts to goose growth and therefore employment while keeping inflation moderate (whatever that means–the definition is adjustable).