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Every forecast or guess has one refreshing quality: one will be right and the rest will be wrong. What’s the difference between a forecast< and a guess? On one level, the answer is "none": the future is unknown and even the most informed forecast is still a guess.

The economy has reached an inflection point where everything that is unsustainable finally starts unraveling.Our economy is in a crisis that’s been brewing for decades. The Chinese characters for the English word are famously–and incorrectly–translated as danger and opportunity.

There would be some deliciously karmic justice in the “dumb money” driving a rally that forced the “smart money” to cover their shorts and chase the rally that shouldn’t even be happening. Being cursed with contrarianism, as soon as a trade gets crowded and the consensus is one way, I start looking for whatever is considered so unlikely that it’s essentially “impossible.”

Workers are voting with their feet, and that’s difficult to control. When values and expectations change, everything else eventually changes, too. What happens when the workforce no longer wants to work? We’re about to find out.